Key Reasons for Green Building Optimism in 2025, and Beyond

Posted by: Allison Friedman // Rate It Green Admin

It’s understandable to be concerned about the future of green building if you expected more from 2024 and are looking to 2025 with some concern.  While I share these worries, I’d like to share some reasons to remain optimistic and positive about building more sustainably in 2025 and beyond.  

Personally, I am still waiting to see key elements of the Inflation Reduction Act roll out and I admit I was already confused about the pace and process for rebate approval, as I worry the current speed is causing some project hesitation as it is.  I am also now wondering what funding and credits could possibly be diluted or rescinded altogether, and what might happen to electrification and energy efficiency efforts going forward?  The truth is, right now we do not have the answers to some of these questions. We do know that some IRA (and similar policy) benefits have already resulted geographically bipartisan impacts, so that makes me hopeful we’ll see these programs remain intact.

I want to make clear that to me green building and so many health and environmental issues clearly ought to be, or really are, bipartisan.  I can’t see disagreeing if we take care to provide great opportunities as part of an exciting transition to a more sustainable economy, including buildings that are comfortable and efficient and support better health.  And cost less to operate.  It is hard to see how even those who do not consder themselves environmentalists could be against these benefits.

This is an uncertain time to be sure, and of course there will be challenges, but there are also real reasons for optimism. Let’s review a few reasons even at a high level why green building isn’t going anywhere and why the sky is still the limit.

Please be sure to check out thestate and municipal resources at the end of this document - check them out, I know I was impressed at the work I see to map out and explain various complex resources and policies.  

Here are five thoughts I have on why it’s ok to remain positive and carry on! 

• Energy codes have changed in favor of greater efficiency. The 2021 IECC (International Energy Code Council) energy code represented approximately a 10% gain in energy efficiency over the prior 2018 energy code. Although code energy efficiency improvements stalled in the 2015 and 2018 model codes, gains before and after these years mean that a building built to the 2021 code would use about half the energy of a code-built building in 1975. 

• Green building is a market-driven movement and will not disappear. Too many companies have already realized that sustainable building is good business, as evidenced by continued certification. labeling and transparency industry growth.  Those rising numbers of EPDs (Environmental Product Declarations) and HPDs (Health Product Declarations) are evidence of a real commitment, to say nothing about the hundreds of thousands of certified green buildings globally.  Additional workforce is needed to meet demand, but there are already 2.3 million (and growing) jobs in energy efficiency and related fields, and 50% of these jobs are in construction specifically.

• Renewable energy and energy efficiency efforts will continue to grow, for plenty of reasons, including cost competitiveness and proven operational savings.  By 2030, wind and solar PV will account for 30% of global electricity generation! 

  • Commercial building has made great strides in improved energy efficiency in the past decade, enabled by improved technology and an array of incentives. Some efforts are market driven and voluntary, as energy efficiency improvements are increasingly recognized as solid, competitive business decisions as a part of smart property and asset management, in addition to serving as good corporate citizenship and HR practice. Increasingly, states and cities are mandating change through energy efficiency policies, including efficient appliance standards, building performance reporting, clean heat emissions requirements, all-electric requirements.  States are also experimenting with a variety of funding and incentive mechanisms.  

  • The residential solar market is predicted to grow approximately 14% annually through 2030, led by states with favorable conditions and policies and incentivized by recent federal legislation such as the IRA.  New buildings are increasingly more energy efficient due to code requirements alone.  Energy efficiency and clean energy retrofits for existing buildings present multiple challenges including lower demand, more challenging and possibly less profitable projects, and workforce shortages. It sure is easier to build a new building better, but as existing buildings are so much of our stock we are going to have to figure out how to do this hard work. 

  • Consumer awareness is changing due to growing interest in sustainability and growing concern due to climate change.  Information campaigns by nonprofit and government initiatives, manufacturers, and service providers - again spurred on by available tax credits and incentives -  are also likely having an impact.  For example, 90% of consumers now recognize the ENERGY STAR brand. Anecdotally, electrification is now a pretty common term where once it was pretty unknown, and heat pumps are so much more prevalent.  Heat pump installations grew 44% between 2005 and 2020, but 2024 growth over 2023 alone was 12% and growth is now expected to continue at approximately 11% a year. Incentives are powerful, but education efforts are essential for awareness and uptake, and they are working.  Let’s get to work on air sealing and insulation education, too! 

• Awareness of indoor air quality and health will continue to rise, and as people learn more, they’re going to increasingly demand improvements. Look for an increase in indoor air quality equipment, which has already started.  Thermostats are just beginning to show what they can do residentially, and again commercial markets are ahead for many reasons, including productivity. Electrification and health education can also make a difference in demand growth if these efforts expand. 

• Green building, particularly smart building, is also cool.  The technology is increasingly available to give us greater control and to make people more comfortable in the built environment.  Automated and even reactive equipment can monitor, operate within set parameters and even “make” some decisions related to health, energy efficiency and comfort. Why would we go backwards?

 

If you wonder why more progress hasn’t been made and why every building isn’t already healthier and more sustainably built, it’s understandable.  Let’s discuss what we can all do better to make green building fully mainstream!  When I first launched a version of Rate It Green in 2006, I wanted a place to meet other people interested in green building and to share our wins and learn from our mistakes so we could all do better.  And here we are in 2025 when I feel it’s still too challenging to source many green building products and services, particularly in residential construction.  I could give so many examples, and I often wonder if it’s still this challenging for me, how much harder is it now for someone just starting this journey.  I am writing right now next to a new highly energy efficient appliance that is clearly offgassing like crazy.  We can all tell personal and professional stories - and we should be telling them, because we can all serve as resources for each other and for those who don’t yet know they should care about more efficient and healthier spaces.  This is how we grow our impact - At every turn and every green building event, I hear someone saying we have to tell our stories.  I of course completely agree.  

The good news, at a high level to be sure, is that even if we can do better, there is progress, and there are already too many commitments baked into this cake.  Yes, we need more bipartisan support for better buildings, and so much more can be done, but the progress already made is not going to disappear.  We need to be thankful right now that buildings are largely controlled at the state and municipal levels where progress is visible.  Leading states and cities are providing the examples of how energy consumption and emissions have to and can change.  More laws will be enacted, and additional education can also make a difference to increase demand and influence political leaders as well. Let’s get to it!  

I can’t promise how fast we will reach key energy efficiency, clean energy, zero emissions, and related goals, and I realize that’s no small  challenge.  2050 once sounded far away, 2025 is here (goodness), and now we’ve set 2030 goals we don’t appear on target to meet - yet.  But we’re only going to get there if we keep trying. I hope some of these reasons to stay optimistic resonate! And I hope we can have some great discussions and debates! 

 

State and Municipal Green Building Policy Related Resources/Tools: 
 

Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE) - Learn about clean energy and energy efficiency state policies as well as available tax credits, rebates, and funding opportunities.
 

Climate Action Plans: More than 96% of the US population will be covered by a climate action plan. The maps below show US states and cities and global cities with Climate Action Plans.  

• US State Climate Action Plans - (C2ES) Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. C2ES also publishes additional state maps on: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets, Carbon Pricing, Electricity Sector Policies, Transportation Policies, and Low Carbon and Alternative Fuel Standards. 
   

• US Cities Climate Action Plans - C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group
  
   

State Climate Policy Dashboard - ClimateXChange - A list of enacted climate policies, organized by state and policy area. 
 

ACEEE’s City Clean Energy Scorecard (American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy): Learn about clean energy and decarbonization-related policies in 75 US Cities, ranked and analyzed. Where does your city rank?

Map: U.S. City, County, and State Policies for Existing Buildings: Benchmarking, Transparency and Beyond - IMT (Institute for Market Transformation)

Comparison of U.S. Building Performance Standards - IMT (Institute for Market Transformation)

Stretch Codes - US Department of Energy - See which states and cities have adopted more energy efficient “stretch” codes above and beyond current energy codes. 

2024 U.S. Energy and Employment Jobs Report - US Department of Energy - 50% of the 2.3 million clean energy and related industry jobs are in construction.